NBA Draft Lottery Simulator
Official 14-team lottery odds. Watch the ping pong balls fall — run it as many times as you want.
14 teams · Official NBA lottery odds
Hit “Run Simulation” to watch the NBA lottery play out
How the NBA Draft Lottery Works
The NBA draft lottery determines the picking order for the 14 teams that didn't make the playoffs. It uses a 4-ball combination system: 14 ping pong balls numbered 1 through 14 are placed in a machine, and four balls are drawn to create a combination. There are 1,001 possible combinations — 1,000 are assigned to teams and one is discarded.
The lottery only determines the top 4 picks. The three worst teams each receive 140 combinations (14% chance at #1), then odds decrease for each subsequent team. Once the top 4 are drawn, picks 5 through 14 are assigned by inverse regular-season record.
2019 Lottery Reform: Flattened Odds
Before 2019, the worst team had a 25% chance at #1 while the second-worst had 19.9%. The NBA reformed the lottery to flatten the top 3 teams to an equal 14% each, discouraging tanking. Now the worst team can drop as far as 5th, making dramatic jumps and falls more common — and more exciting.
Notable NBA Lottery Results
The lottery has produced some of the most memorable moments in NBA history. In 2019, the New Orleans Pelicans jumped from the 7th-worst record to win the #1 pick (Zion Williamson). In 2008, the Chicago Bulls won the lottery with just a 1.7% chance, securing the pick that became Derrick Rose. The Cleveland Cavaliers famously won 3 of 4 lotteries between 2011 and 2014.
FAQ
How does the NBA draft lottery work?
The NBA draft lottery uses a 4-ball combination system with 1,000 possible outcomes. The 14 non-playoff teams each receive a weighted number of combinations. The lottery determines the top 4 picks; picks 5-14 are assigned by inverse record. The three worst teams each have a 14% chance at the #1 pick.
What are the odds for each team?
The bottom 3 teams each have a 14.0% chance at #1, followed by 12.5% for 4th worst, 10.5% for 5th, then steadily decreasing to 0.5% for the 14th-worst team. Use the odds table above to see the full breakdown.
Can a team with the best odds still miss the top 4?
Yes. Even the team with the worst record can drop to 5th if other teams are drawn first. This has happened multiple times since the 2019 reform.
Is this simulator accurate?
This simulator uses the exact official NBA draft lottery probability distribution with cryptographic randomness. Each run matches the same statistical odds as the real lottery.
Can I use this for my fantasy league?
This simulator replicates the real NBA lottery. For your fantasy league, use our Draft Lottery Generator — it supports any league size, custom team names, and multiple weight modes.